A meeting in Asmara, a business tycoon and a pledge for war

Going by the recent news reports (http://www.voanews.com/english/Africa/2007-09-11-voa31.cfm) the remnants of the Islamic Courts Union and other opposition members comprised of a mix of warlords, business people and clerics from major parts of Somalia has gathered in the Eritrean capital of Asmara to formulate strategies and plans for waging both a diplomatic and military offense against the current Somali government. The conference has been touted as a unifying platform among major opponents of the Transitional Federal Government and their Ethiopian and African Union (Uganda) allies. A lot of ambiguity surrounds the real capabilities of the Asmara group, since the Islamic Courts Union has been spectacularly been defeated by the combined military assault of the Somali government and Ethiopian forces with aerial support from the United States forces based in Djibouti; and also lack any major backing from the international community except Eretria. For their part, the Asmara group (or The Alliance for the Liberation of Somalia, as they would like to be called) has made it clear that they still have the military teeth to wage a military offense against the Somali troops and their Ethiopian allies, and a video captured portraying a training camp run by a commander of the Islamic Courts has been shown on the Al Jazeera network(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSsA3pCy3mQ) . However, conventional wisdom dictates that at least on paper Ethiopia which has one of Sub-Sahara’s largest military, is thought to hold off any offense by the Asmara group.

On the diplomatic front, the Somali prime-minister Mohamed Ghedi has been on the offense, making ground-breaking deals with key financers of the Islamic Courts Union such as Sheikh Abu Bakar Adan, the Mogadishu business tycoon who has bank-rolled the current Mogadishu insurgents. In fact, experts see the departure of the Sheikh Abu Bakar Adan from the Islamic Courts Union as key blow to the efforts by the remnants of the Islamic Courts Union and their clan-based militia allies. Another key breakthrough, made by the prime minister has also included a meeting with former president of the Somali republic Abdul Kassim Salad Hassan, aimed at convincing the former leader to give a political support to the federal government. No details have emerged after the closed-door meeting between the two leaders, but the former president has remarked, “I did not think that this is his [Gedi] position but I do support the position of Ali Mohamed Gedi today,” (http://www.garoweonline.com/artman2/publish/Somalia_27/Somalia_PM_anti-Ethiopia_former_president_talks_in_Mogadishu.shtml)

As the month of Ramadan progress, final preparations for a likely show-down (a military offense or Iraq-style bombings) will intensify, adding more uncertainty to the direction of Somalia and its recovery from a devastating civil war. The failure of the African Union to keep their promise to send more troops to Somalia to take the burden off the shoulders of the Ugandan troops, combined with lack of any tangible financial and diplomatic support from the United States and the European Union, means that the Ethiopians will likely stay till some international forces come in and fills the security vacuum to support the Somali government. Until that happens, the Asmara group will use the Ethiopian presence as a bargaining tool and a rallying call for popular support from the Somali public, many who see the Ethiopian presence, a historic antagonist of the Somali people as an occupation.