Division: a new variable in the Somali Political Equation

In my previous, blog, I have mentioned about the creation of the Asmara group and their pledge to wage a military war against the Transitional Federal Government and their Ethiopian allies during the month of Ramadan. Nevertheless, Ramadan has come and gone, and the situation of Somalia remains as vague as ever. In fact, new crisis of sorts, have emerged in Mogadishu, in form of an ill-timed division between the Prime Minister and the President, giving a new dimension to the current Somali quandary. No one knows for sure the exact cause behind the division between the two men. Nevertheless, the latest rounds of rumors circulating around, point to a disagreement over the exploration of oil in the Puntland state of Somalia, where the President hails from, and charges of corruption against the Prime Minister.The latest rift between the two leaders has come about at a time when the anti-government forces have reportedly been preparing for a major showdown against the government and their Ethiopian allies.

The Prime Minister has again been busy with making deals and truces with key opponents of the Federal Government. As I have mentioned in my previous blog, the Prime Minister has extended his gestures of peace to the biggest opponent of government, namely the Hawiye clan. He has signed a major ground-breaking deal with leaders of the Hawiye clan, which among others called for a quick return of the displaced people back to their homes in the capital, and more discipline and respect for human rights to be shown by the government troops. The Prime Minister has agreed to those demands, and has reportedly admitted the government atrocities and has apologized on behalf of the government. Analysts see the latest meeting between the Prime Minister and the Hawiye as an attempt to help the Prime Minister consolidate his rule and isolate the president and possibly use the Hawiye clan card as a tool to defeat any efforts by the president to impeach him.

Many see, the Prime Minister’s peace gestures as bit too little too late. Ghedi, they say was a political novice when he came to the top position, and had no clear and tangible goals, except a false delusional that he would use the Ethiopians and Mohamed Dhere the Mogadishu mayor and former warlord as a magic wand to solve all his problems, while failing to appreciate the intricate composition of the Somali politics. The ill-disciplined former-militias-turned government troops certainly did not help in winning the public’s confidence of the government, this and many other plunders such as not winning the support of his own Mudulood ( forget the rest of Hawiye sub-clan) clan, have seriously dealt a crucial blow to his efforts to consolidate his power and project his influence beyond certain boroughs in Mogadishu.

The President is often seen as man less likely to forward the agenda of peace in Somalia, and that is supported by his often used dictatorial tendencies. The President is no stranger to being a rebel, and together with the late notorious Somali warlord Mohamed Farah Aideed, is part of the old military establishment that planned for numerous years to dispose the late Somali dictator Mohamed Siyad Barre and replace with a new military junta. Through-out his years as a warlord and as the leader of the Puntland State, the president has proved that he is not too shy about using brutal force to silence his critics, as he has proved on numerous occasion. If the Prime Minister is accused of being a corrupt, then the president has developed track record exercising his nepotism propensities on numerous occasions. The famous story where the president hand-picked a relative of his who had no political or even a college degree to be the Somali ambassador to the United States is a famous case in point (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/298352_ambassador04.html).

There is a lot of ambiguity about the rift between the Prime Minister and the President, and especially what side the Ethiopians will be. For most part, the Prime Minister is down-playing the relevance of the division between him and Abdullahi Yusuf. Nevertheless, the fact that the Prime Minister has become a thick horn in the progress of Abdullahi’s Majerteen clan, and have refused to allow international companies from exploring oil in Puntland without federal government’s oversight is likely to drive the wedge between the two leaders even further. As Somalia enters into yet another stage of political anarchism, military showdown is more likely to be a question of when rather than if. In all of these, it will be the people of Somalia who will pay the ultimate price to a foolish tug-of-war between the main players in what has become Somalia’s social circus.